Polymarket Bitcoin Up or Down markets
Short rounds on whether Bitcoin finishes higher or lower. How they settle, what moves them, and where PolySignal fits in.
What an Up or Down round is
Polymarket lists recurring Bitcoin Up or Down markets over fixed windows, including 5-minute and 15-minute rounds as well as hourly and daily ones. Each round asks one question: will BTC finish the window at or above where it started? Shares on the winning side settle at $1 and the other side at $0, so the price of a share moves with the crowd's implied probability.
Which price settles the round
This is the detail most people miss. The market rules name the resolution source, and it differs by market type:
- Short rounds, such as the 5-minute ones, have been settled against the Chainlink BTC/USD data stream: "Up" if the price at the end of the window is greater than or equal to the price at the start.
- Hourly and daily Up or Down markets have referenced Binance BTC/USDT candles instead.
Rules can change. Always read the Rules section of the specific market before trading.
What PolySignal's crypto signals do
PolySignal's crypto signals cover BTC, ETH and SOL across 5-minute and 15-minute rounds. For each round the engine combines market momentum, order-book pressure and Polymarket crowd odds, reads a live Chainlink price to match how these rounds resolve, and locks its call for the round. A spike override reacts if price jumps sharply after the call. The same engine drives Auto-Pilot.
The signals are a separate engine from the 24-hour, 7-day and 30-day Bitcoin forecasts, which use closed Binance candles and are built for longer horizons.
Risks worth stating plainly
- A 5-minute round is close to a coin flip unless something real moves the price; fees and spreads matter.
- Crowd odds can already price in the obvious move.
- No signal wins every round. Past results do not guarantee future ones.